Term: 1st Semester – Academic Year 2018-2019
Instructor: Paolo Bazzurro, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, Vitor Silva [+ tutor, Omer Odabasi]
Duration: 24-09-2018 – 19-10-2018 (36 hrs lectures + 15 hrs tutoring)
Office hours: by appointment
This course will start with a very succinct overview of the basics of probability and statistics that are commonly used in the field of hazard and risk assessment. The knowledge of the subject is a pre-requisite of the course. After this preamble, in this first part we will move on to describe the basics of risk assessment and loss estimation for assets subject to natural events such as earthquakes, tropical cyclones. In this part we will also review the fundamentals of seismic hazard analysis and we will cover both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Then we will deal with catastrophe risk modeling of portfolios of structures mostly for earthquakes but will briefly discuss tropical cyclones as well. The applications discussed are typical of those found in the insurance/reinsurance industry, capital markets, and sovereign disaster risk financing. Therefore, some fundamentals of insurance/reinsurance will also be provided. Then we will introduce the concepts of seismic risk for single structures and we will compare and contrast them with the approach for portfolio of assets. Time permitting, we will discuss the risk assessment of networks and of nuclear power plants. These cases have special aspects that are not found in the previous applications discussed during the course.
The second part will focus on the application of the portfolio seismic risk assessment theory to real case studies. In this part you will be using models already built and the emphasis will be in learning how to compute and interpret correctly their results. Finally the third and last part of the course will tackle in detail the state-of-the art approach to assess seismic risk of single buildings for both collapse and loss estimation purposes. The techniques that you will learn here are applicable both to the design of new buildings and to the assessment of existing ones.
• Single Building Risk Assignment Presentation: F, October 19, 14: 00-16:00
• Portfolio Risk Assessment Presentation: W, October 24, 9:00-13:00
• Final Exam: F, October 26, 9:00-12:00
• Portfolio Earthquake Loss Estimation Assignment: 25%
• Single Building Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation Assignment: 25%
• Final written exam: 50%
Useful References (copy of journal papers will be provided)
Ang, A. H. and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Probability Concepts In Engineering: Emphasis On Applications In Civil & Environmental Engineering,” Wiley.
Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York, McGraw-Hill.
Kutner M.H., Nachtsheim C., and Neter J., 2004. Applied linear regression models, McGraw-Hill, 1396 p.
Ross, S. M. (2004). Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. Amsterdam, Elsevier Academic Press.
Gordon Woo: The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes’ (ISBN-13: 978-1860941825) and ‘Calculating Catastrophe’ (ISBN-13: 978-1848167391) published by Imperial College Press
Grossi, P. and Kenreuther, H. Editors (2005) “Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk, Huebner International Series on Risk, Insurance and Economic Security (ISBN-13: 978-0387241050)