Probability and Statistics for Engineering Applications
Term: 1st year, 1st Semester
CFU: 6
SSD: CEAR-07/A
Duration: available here
Schedule: available here
Office hours: please contact the lecturers
OBJECTIVES
Most problems in the different fields of Civil Engineering cannot be fully and efficiently addressed without knowledge of probability and statistics. In this course we will make an attempt to cover some basic aspects of probability and statistics that relate to practical matters keeping dice tossing and card games to a bare minimum. Less emphasis will be given to derivations and more to concepts and applications. We will start by discussing why probability and statistics are related but are not the same. Concept and definition of random variables and different functions of random variables will be covered in this initial part of the course. Afterwards, focus is given to commonly used probability distribution functions in civil engineering. Discussions on statistics and sampling are presented towards the last part of the course. In this part, goodness of fit tests, regression a analyses, estimation of distribution parameters from statistics, hypothesis testing and their significance will be discussed. Finally basics of Monte Carlo simulation and an introduction to variance reduction techniques will also be covered.Each topic is discussed with reference to different application problems and their solutions in different fields of civil engineering, such as Structural Engineering, Earthquake Engineering, Transportation Engineering, Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, and Geotechnical Engineering. Basic applications of decision analysis will also be introduced.
DESCRIPTION
Theoretical lectures will be complemented by tutorials(aiming at the practical application of the concepts and methods developed during the lectures). The topics that will be discussed in the course are reported in the following.
REQUIREMENTS
Knowledge of college-level calculus and basic skills in at least one of the following computer SW tools: Excel, Matlab, R. Proficiency in reading, writing and comprehending English language. Examples from different branches of engineering will be used throughout the course, but no prior in-depth knowledge of engineering is necessary.
REFERENCES
1. Ang, A. H. and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Probability Concepts In Engineering: Emphasis On applications In Civil & Environmental Engineering,” Wiley.
2. Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York, McGraw-Hill.
3. Kutner M.H., Nachtsheim C., and Neter J., 2004. Applied linear regression models, McGraw-Hill, 1396 p.
ASSESSMENT
Assignments (weakly basis); 25% of final mark; Documentation Open
Midterm Examination; 25% of final mark; 1 sheet A4 (provided)
Final Examination; 50% of final mark; 2 sheets A4 (provided)
INSTRUCTOR 1: Prof. Paolo Bazzurro: official webpage and CV
INSTITUTION: IUSS
E-mail: paolo.bazzurro@iusspavia.it
Voice: +39 0382 375850
Fax: +39 0382 375899
Bio: Paolo Bazzurro is professor of Structural Design at University School for Superior Studies (IUSS) in Pavia. He earned his M.S., Engineer Degree, and Ph.D. in Civil Engineering at Stanford University where he has been part-time Consulting Assistant Professor from 2001 to 2005.
Before joining IUSS, he gained more than 25 years of professional experience in Europe and United States dealing with risk assessment of monetary losses caused by natural events for corporate clients, insurance companies, reinsurance companies and brokers, sovereign and local governments and other public institutions. In this period he led projects dealing with the assessment of hazard and risk caused by earthquakes, hurricanes, flood and tsunami to a variety of onshore and off shore structures and portfolios of assets located in five continents.
In this period, he worked for 11 years as a Principal Engineer and Director of Risk Engineering and Analysis of AIR Worldwide where he led the risk assessment work and contributed to the design of the final risk mitigation strategies in ground-breaking projects such as CatMex and MultiCat, which supported the issuance of insured-linked securities and more traditional insurance coverage for the Government of Mexico.
He also carried out the risk assessment work for the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative in the Pacific Region for the World Bank, which brought to fruition the first insurance facility in that region of the world. Over the years he has also led many research and application-oriented projects for prestigious organizations such as the United States Geological Survey, the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), for which he led the two damage reconnaissance missions after the 2002 Molise and 2009 L’Aquila Earthquakes.
From 2009 to 2015 he was the Deputy Chair of the Scientific Board of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and members of several others international scientific and editorial boards. In the period 2013-2017 he was a member of the Seismic section of the Great Risks Committee appointed by the Italian Prime Minister office and Head of the “Hazard and Risk Assessment” Section at the European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering (EUCENTRE) Foundation in Pavia.
He is currently Member of the Working Group for the Review of the Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Tsunami Maps” that was appointed by the Italian Prime Minister office to provide guidance to the Italian Department of Civil Protection (2017-2019).
He authored more than 150 refereed publications in different engineering areas mostly related to risk assessment.
INSTRUCTOR 2: Carlo Giudicianni: official webpage and CV
Institution: DICAR (UNIPV)
E-mail: carlo.giudicianni@unipv.it
Bio: Carlo Giudicianni obtained his PhD in Hydraulic Engineering in 2020 at the University
of Campania, Italy, where from April 2020 to March 2022 he took up a Research Fellow
post. Then he moved to the University of Pavia to be first Postdoctoral Researcher (2022-
2025), and then Assistant Professor (from June 2025 onwards).
He has been lecturer on hydraulic infrastructures and climate change impact on water
systems at postgraduate level, and has published more than 40 papers in a variety of
Scopus and ISI indexed international journals.
He participated in a national research project, and he is member of an European Action
Group of EIP (European Innovation Partnership) on Water, titled CTRL+SWAN (Cloud
Technologies & ReaL time monitoring + Smart Water Network). His research includes
modelling and management of water distribution networks and urban drainage systems,
urban hydrology, rainfall analysis, and application of Complex Network Theory,
Optimization algorithms, and Machine Learning techniques to water systems.
INSTRUCTOR 3: Enrico Creaco: official webpage and CV and personal webpage
Institution: DICAR (UNIPV)
E-mail: creaco@unipv.it
Voice: +39 0382 985317
Fax: +39 0382 985589
Skype: enrico.creaco
Bio: Enrico Creaco obtained his PhD in Hydraulic Engineering in 2006 and has researched topics pertinent to water and environmental systems for over ten years. His career began at the Universities of Catania and then Ferrara, Italy. From May 2014 to June 2015 he took up a Research Fellow post at the University of Exeter and then moved to the University of Pavia to be first Assistant (2015-2018), then Associate (2018-2023) and finally Full (from 2023 onwards) Professor. Since 2016, he has been Honorary Senior Reseach Fellow at the University of Exeter and Adjunct Senior Lecturer at the University of Adelaide.
He has been lecturer on hydraulic infrastructures at both undergraduate and postgraduate level and have published more than 110 papers in a variety of Scopus and ISI indexed international journals. He is Associate Editor of the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management-ASCE and participated in/coordinated various national and international research projects. He is member of an European Action Group of EIP (European Innovation Partnership) on Water, titled CTRL+SWAN (Cloud Technologies & ReaL time monitoring + Smart Water Network) and of the academic spinoff MedHydro srl. Research interests: design and management of water distribution, sewer and irrigation systems; numerical modelling of shallow waters and sediment transport; demand analysis; protection of water distribution systems from contamination.