Hydrological Risk
Curriculum: HYRIS
Term: 2nd year, 2nd Semester
CFU: 6
SSD: CEAR-01/B
Duration and Schedule: available here
Office hours: Tuesday/Thursday 10-13 AM
OBJECTIVES
The objective of the course is to introduce students to the main hydrological hazards (fluvial flood, flash flood, excess of rainfall and drought) and the consequent risks. The course aims at providingto the students an overview of the main approaches to assess the hydrological risk and of the main modelling techniques to quantify it.
DESCRIPTION
- Introduction to hydrology and flood risk, 2. The main processes of the hydrological cycle, 3. Modelling approaches to compute the discharge in a river, 4. Definition of flood, 5. Statistical methods to describe the extreme events, 6. The Intense-Duration-Frequency curve, 7. The Flood Frequency Curve, 8. Anatomy of a Flood Risk Model, 9. Models for hazard estimation, 10. 1D and 2D hydraulic models, 11. Simplified geomorphological models, 12. The role of the hydraulic defenses, 13. Models for the vulnerability estimation, 14. Models for the exposure, 15. Generation of flood events, 16. Flood risk analysis, 17 Definition of drought, 18. Main modelling approach to assess the drought risk.
During the course there will be presentations on specific applications: the estimation of the defence failure effects, the downscaling of the exposure model, the computation of building damages due to flood, models for drought estimation over large areas, simple tools for the estimation of the extreme events distribution.
REQUIREMENTS
Basic knowledge of Hydrology and Probability and Statistics.
REFERENCES
Eslamian, Saeid. Handbook of Engineering Hydrology, Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group, 2014
YacovHaimes,Risk Modelling, Assessment and Management, Wiley, 2016
Zakai Sen, D. Chase, D. Savic, W.Grayman, S. Beckwith, and E. Koelle (2003). Apply Drought Modelling, Prediction and Mitigation.Elsevier, 2015
ASSESSMENT
Assignments will be handedover and graded during the course.The final examination will consist of a presentation of a study case.Students will be admitted to the final exam based on a satisfactory performance in the assignment.
Instructor 1: Francesco Dottori
Institution: IUSS
E-mail: francesco.dottori@iusspavia.it
Bio: Francesco Dottori is associate professor in Hydrology at the University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia since July 2024. His research interests include the development of models and tools for flood risk assessment, the evaluation of socio-economic impacts of climate change, and the study of adaptation measures against natural hazards.
Francesco Dottori graduated as civil-environmental engineer and obtained a PhD in physical modelling for the environment at the University of Bologna, Italy. From 2013 to 2022 he worked at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, where he contributed to the development of the European (EFAS) and Global (GloFAS) Flood Awareness Systems, both part of the European Earth observation program “Copernicus”. He also participated in several research projects focused on the impacts of climate change in Europe, and provided scientific support to European policies on climate and disaster risk management. From 2023 to 2024, he worked for CIMA Research Foundation (Savona, Italy) on the United Nations’ initiative “Early Warnings for all”, as well as on projects regarding impact-based forecasting and flood risk.
Instructor 2: Arosio Marcello: official webpage and CV
Institution: IUSS
E-mail: marcello.arosio@iusspavia.it
Bio: I am a specialist in disaster risk assessment of natural hazard. I have hands-on working experience in projects related to water engineer, climate-proofing infrastructure, climate risk management and academic research in complex adaptive systems. I am Assistant Professor in flood risk assessment at IUSS University in Pavia.
I am now working on the MEDiateFRAME, NOCTUA research project and in the past I worked on NEW
and RIDES projects: respectively multi-hazard and graph theory applied to risk assessment, satellite sources to monitor and assess the risks and CBA analysis to design infrastructure.
I coordinate the elaboration of an Adaptation Fund’s proposal for UNESCO “Haiti Implementing Measures for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Mitigation of School Facilities in Haiti” (10 million budget for 3 year projects, accepted and financed).
I achieved a PhD in Understanding and Managing Extremes, I have been a UNV Specialist in Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction at UNDP VietNam and a researcher at RIMES (Thailand) as Engineer-Risk Assessment on extreme weather related to climate change. I wrote the Technical-organisational guidelines for a local Civil Protection system (UNI/PdR 47:2018).