Curriculum: HYRIS

Term: 2^nd year, 2^nd Semester

Syllabus

CFU: 6

SSD: CEAR-01/B

Duration and Schedule: available here

Office hours: please contact the lecturer

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of the course is to provide students with a comprehensive understanding of systemic risk and the indirect impacts associated with natural hazards. The course is structured into three main parts:
1. Introduction to Types of Impacts: Students will explore various types of impacts arising from natural hazards and learn to recognize and classify these impacts.
2. Addressing the Complexity of Systems Exposed to Natural Hazards: This section will focus
on the complexity of systems vulnerable to natural hazards, examining factors that affect their
resilience and response.
3. Basic Principles of Graph Theory and Systemic Risk Assessment Model: Students will gain fundamental knowledge of graph theory, applicable to modeling and assessing systemic risk, analyzing how interconnections between system components can influence its vulnerability.

DESCRIPTION

Introduction to Risk Assessment

• Review of basic concepts in traditional risk assessment.
• Methods and tools for risk evaluation.
• Limitations and challenges in traditional risk assessment.

Systems Thinking

• Definition and principles of systems thinking.
• Analysis of the complexity of systems exposed to natural hazards.
• Differences between systemic and traditional approaches.

Complex Networks and Systems Exposed to Natural Hazards

• Understanding network exposure and the complexity of systems.
• Complex networks and their application in risk assessment.
• Relationships between system components and potential impacts.

Direct and Indirect Impacts

• Distinction between direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards.
• Methodologies for analyzing and quantifying impacts.
• Case studies and practical applications.

Introduction to Graph Theory

• History and fundamental characteristics of graph theory.
• Basic definitions: nodes, edges, and classifications.
• Key properties of graphs and their significance.

Types of Graphs

• Types of graphs: simple graphs, directed graphs, weighted graphs, etc.
• Applications of different types of graphs in risk assessment.

Systemic Risk Assessment Model

• Structure and functionality of the systemic risk assessment model.
• Application of the model to complex systems.
• Scenario analysis and simulations.

Application Examples

• Real-world case studies and simulations applying the systemic risk model.
• Discussion of results and practical implications.

Exercises on Graph Properties

• Practical activities for analyzing and manipulating graph properties.
• Use of software and tools for graph analysis (e.g., R).
• Discussion of exercise results.

METHODS

The course will be conducted through classroom lectures adopting an interdisciplinary approach. Each lecture will incorporate significant opportunities for discussion and engagement. The syllabus will be organized into distinct sections, with each section commencing with a thorough examination of foundational theoretical concepts. These concepts will then be connected to practical applications. Furthermore, students will be introduced to algorithms designed to identify specific graphs or solutions that align with the theoretical findings, thereby bridging theory and practice.

REQUIREMENTS

Participants should have a basic understanding of common natural hazards (earthquake, flood, landslide) and fundamental principles of statistics.

REFERENCES

Scientific articles for in-depth study will be provided throughout the course, and students are encouraged to read at least one of the suggested articles. Additionally, the primary reference text for the course will be the following book: Network Science:

http://networksciencebook.com/

ASSESSMENT

Assessment will be conducted through a combination of assignments and a final examination. Throughout the course, students will be required to submit and will receive grades for various assignments. The final examination will involve a comprehensive evaluation of these assignments, complemented by an oral examination in which students will be expected to defend and discuss their work.

Instructor: Arosio Marcello: official webpage and CV

Institution: IUSS

E-mail: marcello.arosio@iusspavia.it

Bio: I am a specialist in disaster risk assessment of natural hazard. I have hands-on working experience in projects related to water engineer, climate-proofing infrastructure, climate risk management and academic research in complex adaptive systems. I am Assistant Professor in flood risk assessment at IUSS University in Pavia.
I am now working on the MEDiateFRAME, NOCTUA research project and in the past I worked on NEW
and RIDES projects: respectively multi-hazard and graph theory applied to risk assessment, satellite sources to monitor and assess the risks and CBA analysis to design infrastructure.
I coordinate the elaboration of an Adaptation Fund’s proposal for UNESCO “Haiti Implementing Measures for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Mitigation of School Facilities in Haiti” (10 million budget for 3 year projects, accepted and financed).
I achieved a PhD in Understanding and Managing Extremes, I have been a UNV Specialist in Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction at UNDP VietNam and a researcher at RIMES (Thailand) as Engineer-Risk Assessment on extreme weather related to climate change. I wrote the Technical-organisational guidelines for a local Civil Protection system (UNI/PdR 47:2018).